Post-November 2012

Well, the president won.

I salute his campaign — they were absolutely brilliant at identifying and getting their voters out to the polls. Chicago decisively defeated Boston.

Before Hurricane Sandy, it might have been different — the popular vote was that close. And Governor Christie is now dead to us Republicans, as far as national ambitions go. But what happens, happens, and there’s no use crying over it.

Going forward, there’s something interesting to note.

In the elections for the House of Representatives, the Republicans lost eight seats but maintained a healthy majority.

There was a Democratic plurality of the national popular vote. This means less than one might mean, as there really aren’t serious Republican candidates for downtown congressional seats. But here’s a thought: the GOP won 48% of the vote, the Democrats won 49% of the vote, and the Libertarians won 1.2% of the vote.

Had it not been for the spoiler effect of Libertarian candidates, the Republicans probably would have picked up seats, not lost them, and would probably have won the popular vote.

I think this is significant. I think that this Reason magazine item pinpoints a good cleavage going forward.

Our “friends” on the left (concern trolls) suggest that the Republican Party has been TOO libertarian. Our friends on the libertarian side suggest that the Republican Party has not been libertarian enough.

I agree with the libertarian critique. The future of the Republican Party is not with George Bush-style “compassionate” conservatism, it is with the libertarian side of the Tea Party.

That’s the fight we’re going to have, and that’s where the action will be on the right. Should be fun to watch.

President Obama has his full eight years now. I think the people erred grievously by re-electing him, but we are where we are. Let’s make the most of it — we have a healthy House majority, we would have had a Senate majority had we not insisted on throwing away easily winnable seats, and we have a good base to build upon.

Go more libertarian, and engage with ethnic communities the way that Jason Kenney has done for the Conservative Party of Canada. (Do not, repeat, DO NOT pander. People can spot the difference between pandering and sincere engagement.)

This is not complicated. But it may be hard.

Election Day, 2012

Suffice it to say, polls have shifted the president’s way since a week ago & my prediction below.

We’ll see what happens. Could go either way, could even still end up going the way I predicted, if Romney actually wins independent voters decisively.

Till tonight, this song seems apt.

Update, 1:45 PM: Win or lose, this piece reflects my view of the presidential campaign.