Romney leads

CBS/NYTimes poll (data) –

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney’s slight advantage remains within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.

Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.

That’s a poll with a significant margin of Democrat voters.

I’m now expecting Romney to lead through the summer — like Dukakis did in 1988.

Obama will be looking to Dukakis/Kerry him, soon enough, just like the Bush clan did to those Democratic nominees.

Will it work? We’ll see.

Update: Hot Air notes that Romney leads among women in the poll.

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Also: Mitt likes lakes.

I actually find the clip rather charming, which makes me suspicious. What’s the Times up to? (Because I know they aren’t going to be fair, or post something without having an agenda.) Maybe they’re pushing Romney’s past liking for mandates?

Update again: Kaus takes the cynical view.

Thinking two steps ahead? If Barack Obama loses the 2012 election, do you think he’s going to quit elective politics, serve on a series of corporate and foundation boards, write a best-selling children’s book on being a Dad and a Lugaresque memoir describing how Fox News and Peter Orszag betrayed him? I don’t. I think he’s going to run again, Grover Cleveland style. That casts possible additional (distant) light on today’s endorsement of same-sex marriage: It may or may not help Obama in 2012. But it would much more reliably likely help him in 2016, when public opinion can be expected to have shifted further in favor of this social innovation. It would certainly help him in the Democratic primaries.

Go figure.

I don’t think Romney’s THAT far ahead, that Obama’s people would be that worried just yet.

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Oh, one other thing. This’ll get me into conspiracy territory, but I think there’s something there. InTrade.com’s refused to budge over the last few weeks — they have an Obama victory at approximately 60% and a Romney victory below 40%.

I’m wondering if they’re nerfed. That is, that someone (a certain campaign, perhaps) is placing bets on that market not to win, but to affect others’ perceptions. Because I don’t think Obama’s re-election has been at 60% for quite some time now.

Anyway, it’s just a thought I had, as it’s a very small marketplace over there, but with great influence among those who know about these things.