Is Harper back?
Paul Wells says that he is.
The 2009 budget projected that direct program expenses — the money the feds spend on programs and not on transfers to people or to provinces and territories — would total $121.8 billion in 2013-2014. Today’s budget projects only $113.7 in direct program expenses for 2013-14. Total program expenses — direct plus transfers — for 2013-2014 were projected at $254 billion in 2009. Today’s budget puts the number at $249 billion.
The government is holding the line, and in fact trimming it ever so slightly. Its long-term plan has always been to constrain the ability of any future government to create big new programs in areas of provincial jurisdiction like health, education or social services. I use a few names for this strategy, including “flat-tire federalism.” The 2008-09 economic uproar blew Harper off track. But he’s back.
So… what say you? Is he?
The libertarians say that program spending has gone from $276B to $276.1B — an increase of $100M.
Is that good?
When you factor in inflation (let’s assume 2%), a $100 m increase is the equivalent of about $5 billion in cuts. Better than it looks.
My qualms are:
a) They fail to factor in spending as a proportion of GDP, which is the real thing which should be declining. $100 million means something different in Gambia than it does in Canada.
b) The limitation to “program spending”. Two of the most expensive things the government pays for are transfers to provinces (which goes to government spending) and transfers to individuals. That’s not free. It’s actually horrendously expensive.
Something else to think about: the current “program spending” number is (I’m 95% sure) billions larger than Paul Martin’s largest TOTAL budget.