Layton passes Harper on the Leadership Index.
Is there any hope?
Well, yes. Basically, if Blue Grits, a.k.a. Business Liberals, take fright at the prospect of a Layton government, there could be a big swing back towards Harper on the weekend — could even carry him across the line.
Do I think it’ll happen? I suspect not.
I think that people have made a judgment — whatever they may think of the job Prime Minister Harper has done, they think he’s an arrogant cuss who could stand to be taken down a peg or three.
And it’s their right as citizens to make that call.
***
But, if they happened to not want corporate taxes to go up and jobs to go away, well, they know what to do.
I wonder what Wells makes of all this?
Just checked. He is just as confused as everyone else.
Yes, he is. Been tweeting about it, too.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/27/stephen-harper-is-now-winning-a-lot-less/
Well, he’s the Harperologist, not the Laytonologist.
You know what? I think he should ditch his campaign advisors (unless thats only himself) for:
- asbestos comment.
- stupid black quilted Canada 2010 jacket.
- closed campaign gatherings.
- obvious fear of his own off the cuff reaction to anything.
- saying Canada is only an economic function.
- lame “band in the living room” day off
I have always said there was more to like about the guy if he were ever honest with us at a personal level. He unnecessarily cut the GST, blew the fall 2008 recession threat but has done well on the economy since. Too proud. That’s what I see.
Yes, too proud.
Needed to show humility to get his majority, my mom said at the start of the campaign.
Mothers are right about those things.
***
Well, there’s still a few days… But I expect to lose.
I am not sure about the losing part, but he will be humbled.
Of course I could be wrong. From the Globe a few minutes ago. I copied the whole paragraph, but it is the last sentence that will make your blood grow cold.
Let me explain. The Nanos research poll, probably the heaviest covered of the campaign, this morning reported national voting intentions of Conservative: 37.8 per cent; NDP: 27.8 per cent; Liberal: 22.9 per cent; BQ: 5.8 per cent; and Green: 4.7 per cent for the period ending April 26. It takes a little arithmetic with this three-day rolling poll, but when you isolate last night’s numbers, you get the NDP in first place with 36.2 per cent; the Conservatives second with 35 per cent; the Liberals with 17.5 per cent, the BQ with 4.4 per cent and Greens with 6.9 per cent.
It looks like a complete collapse of both the Liberal and Bloc votes.
So, that helps with my decision on Monday.
The left decided it was time to unite.
Greg — no, you’re right.
Which I saw immediately from the leadership index change.
Basically, as I expected, people had a chat amongst themselves over Easter, and this is the decision they came to.
_I_ figured they’d decide on a Harper majority, but, well, they’re the bosses.
And so this is what they’re doing.
Alan — yes, I think they did.
What leaves it still a semi-open question now is whether the business Liberals — the right-wing ones — now decide to break for Harper.
If they do, Harper can still win.
I think they _will_ eventually break for the Tories — but it might not be in this election. Which leaves us with Prime Minister Layton.
The trick is, did the business Liberals already depart in 2006? And then more still in 2008?
I remain stunned by these results. Stunned! At the beginning of this campaign I was beyond cynical and uninterested. I don’t really know what will happen May 2nd, but a dramatic realignment already seems in play.
I think it’s the realignment I wanted — a centre-left and a centre-right party contending for power.
I just figured it would happen over a couple of elections, by way of a Harper majority (or two).
Re the business Liberals — there are enough. The last five percent who put Rob Ford over the top last fall.
I wonder: For the past 30 years, in very general and broad political terms, Canada has been a little behind and a bit to the left of the U.S. We elected Mulroney after Reagan; Chretien after Clinton; and Harper after Bush. If that’s a trend, does Layton after Obama make sense?
It’s possible… If so, look forward to the backlash…
Sent from my iPhone