Narrowing, narrowing…
This is interesting:
Support for Stephen Harper’s Tories is up slightly from the survey ending the day before, going from 38.4 per cent to 39.1 per cent of committed voters.
The big change however is support shifting from the NDP to the Liberals. Support for Michael Ignatieff’s team jumped from 28.7 per cent to 32.7 per cent, while NDP support dropped to 15.9 per cent from 19.6 per cent.
“The nightly tracking has identified the first possible shift of the campaign,” pollster Nik Nanos said.
And the plot has officially thickened.
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Also, I don’t think we’re getting our Harper/Ignatieff cage match. Harper’s people offered either/or — either a full slate debate or a Harper/Ignatieff throwdown (or a mix — first half all four, second half head-to-head) — whereas Ignatieff’s people wanted both/and — i.e., as many debates as possible.
Pity. I’d've liked it.
But the frontrunner never offers the trailer more chances to punch him than he has to, and Harper — Liberal consolidation notwithstanding — remains the frontrunner.
Mid-morning update: Go to the actual Nanos poll.
Ontario numbers: CPC 47.5%, Libs 32.2%, NDP 16.3%.
Okay, less worried — Ontario is what counts.
I think you are wrong on this. Harper and, I think, Ignatieff, unlike the pundits, realize that, because Harper is not currently in majority territory, Ignatieff is on track to be Prime Minister. That’s why Harper tried to shake things up with a one on one debate: because he is trailing.
Harper’s trailing by our measures, yes.
But he would be in any event — till the last week. That’s when we’ll see movement.
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I’m starting to wonder if we might just lose this thing.
Strike that, we might not be trailing — up 47.5%-32.2% in Ontario.
This is a different, stranger electorate.
Polarized.
Margins of error are big. And there could be some people, especially out West, who are down on the Conservatives because they haven’t been right wing enough (eg, Terence Corcoran). They are likely to vote Con in the end.