Trouble in paradise…
March 30, 2011
Harper’s only up by ten.
Needs at least a twelve-point win.
This one may be slipping away…
[Well, maybe not -- it says the Tories have a ten-point lead in Ontario, which they won by five points last time. Will an extra margin in seat-rich Ontario be enough?]
Categories: I am Canadian!, Political prognostication
It’s not so much the margin for the Cons, as the absolute level. 40% seems to be the rule of thumb: if they get less than that (but more than the Liberals), we will see a coalition.
Nanos typically has the Liberals a few points higher than other polls. Don’t worry about the absolute numbers, worry about the change in numbers.
The votes don’t matter. The seats do.
Need 154.
Well, sure, but polls don’t give us the number of seats. The question is, what is the best number from the polls to quickly predict the number of seats.
So, Baird or Flaherty for leader?
The question is, what is the best number from the polls to quickly predict the number of seats.
That’s virtually impossible to answer for numbers reported nationally. If Harper’s numbers are up in Quebec but stay flat nationally (at around 40%), its probably bad news. Finishing second in more Quebec ridings but losing more close GTA ridings is a net loss in seats, even if it means a higher percentage of the popular vote.
IMO, its the regional numbers that are most important. Unfortunately, for most polls, the margin of error on the regional numbers is really high due to small sample sizes.
As I’ve said at my place, I think the outcome of this election depends entirely on what the Ontario Liberal Party does.
McGuinty has to face us in May and he’s, in the last poll I saw, down by nine points. If the party decides to throw all of its fundraising and organization into saving Premier Dad instead of helping Ignatieff, that could give Harper a good chunk of seats here. They might even win a couple in 416, although I highly doubt it.
On the other hand, Hudak is far and away the weakest Tory challenger Ontario has seen since I was in high school. Once a campaign starts up and the Grits start wailing on him, I just can’t imagine a scenario where McGuinty loses. But the provincial Grits may have seen numbers that I haven’t, or just don’t want to take that chance. Or they might want to humiliate Hudak by an even more spectacular margin than I think they will.
Having said that, even if Harper wins a dozen seats in Ontario, he has to hold onto everything else he’s got, and I’m not sure he can do that in Quebec. And if he can’t, he has to make those seats up in either BC or Atlantic Canada.
Gents above: Harper won in 2008 by 11.4 points, and won 143 seats.
I say he needs a 12-14 point win for a majority.
Re Ontario, Skippy, McGuinty has declared that he won’t campaign for the federal Liberals, tho’ he will campaign for his brother. He’s concentrating on winning re-election.
My prediction, even now: Harper majority, McGuinty majority.
Oh, and Greg: if there’s a race sometime in the next decade — Bernier for leader. (There might not be, however…)
What McGuinty himself does doesn’t really matter. I doubt that he could personally help Iggy, given his own low approval.
The provincial party’s resources, however, are another matter. That could mean money and people knocking on doors for Ignatieff that I don’t think the PC’s think can contribute to Harper.
The OLP might not decide that it’s in their strategic interest to have a massive Rob Ford win in 416 followed by an Ontario-born Harper majority, although it would allow him to run against both.
I guess we’ll see, though.
Greg Staples you old son of a gun. How are you?