Strong Stable Majority

Quebec looks okay:

Rock-solid consensus of Quebec commentators: Harper is doing everything to alienate Qc voters. CPC in 2nd place in Qc http://bit.ly/yqW9Js

And elsewhere:

Released Tuesday, the poll shows the Conservatives with 39 per cent support of decided voters, the NDP have 28 per cent and the Liberals are at 22 per cent followed by the Bloc at six per cent and Elizabeth May’s Green Party with five per cent support.

Mr. Canseco says the Liberal momentum is due, in part, to the recent Liberal Party biennial policy convention that featured wall-to-wall news coverage for Interim leader Rae and the party.

And he notes that Mr. Rae’s approval rating at 35 per cent is much higher than what was posted by former leaders Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. However, it is below that of Prime Minister Harper, whose rating is 43 per cent. Ms. Turmel has a rating of 32 per cent.

Regionally, the poll shows the Conservatives leading in Alberta and Ontario with 65 and 42 per cent respectively. The Liberals are in second place in Ontario with 29 per cent and the NDP have the support of 24 per cent of respondents.

This is what one wants — Harper’s support holding steady, and the opposition roiled — the third-place party’s leader has higher ratings than the second-place party’s leader.

That’s a formula that worked fine for the CPC from 2007 through 2011.

It would be preferable to see PM Harper motoring along with, say, 45-46% of voting intentions, but 39% will do quite nicely between elections. (As Tory numbers always run up during a writ drop period.)

Mulcair: Now More Than Ever

H’m.

Le NPD a perdu près de la moitié des intentions de vote au Québec depuis les dernières élections fédérales, révèle un sondage CROP réalisé auprès de 1000 internautes du 19 au 23 janvier derniers. Si le sondage avait été fait par téléphone, la marge d’erreur serait d’environ trois points de pourcentage.

Depuis le mois de décembre, le parti a perdu sept points de pourcentage et récolte maintenant 29% des intentions de vote après la répartition des indécis et des abstentionnistes. Pourtant, en juin dernier, soit un mois après les dernières élections, le parti obtenait un sommet d’appuis avec 53% des intentions de vote. …

C’est le Parti libéral du Canada (PLC) qui profite le plus de la baisse d’appuis au NPD. Depuis le mois de juin, le parti, dont Bob Rae assure la direction par intérim, a doublé ses appuis au Québec, passant de 10% à 19%. Le Parti conservateur a lui aussi bénéficié de la diminution des appuis au NPD, mais de manière moins marquée.

Par ailleurs, l’élection de Daniel Paillé n’a absolument rien changé pour le Bloc québécois, qui stagne à 22%. …

Malgré ce faible pourcentage, les Québécois estiment que Stephen Harper est la meilleure personne pour diriger le Canada. Interrogés sur le chef de parti qui ferait le meilleur premier ministre, 20% des gens ont opté pour M. Harper, qui est talonné de près par Bob Rae avec 19% des votes.

Well, as the title of this post suggests, I think this strengthens the case for Tom Mulcair as NDP leader.

But we’ll see.

Wild Tom

Interesting.

Former Conservative national campaign manager Tom Flanagan will be running the spring election campaign for Alberta’s Wildrose Party, the latest sign that the allegiances of federal Conservatives are split in the party’s home base. …

In Mr. Flanagan, Wildrose gets a campaign manager with deep ties to the federal Conservative Party. He’s a University of Calgary professor and former colleague and confidant of Prime Minister Stephen Harper – whom Mr. Flanagan has nonetheless criticized occasionally since.

His hiring shows how Wildrose continues to tap into the Conservative base in its bid to dethrone the more centrist PCs.

“The number of years of experience he brings to the campaign is immense to us,” said Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith, who Monday’s poll showed as effectively tied, 40-39, in approval ratings with Ms. Redford. “He’s given a lot of focus to our efforts, and we’ll be ready to go whenever it is they decide to pull the plug.”

An election is expected in late April. Monday’s Forum Research Inc. poll showed the PCs with 38-per-cent support and projected to win 57 of the province’s 87 seats (the party currently holds 68 of 83 existing ridings). Wildrose had 29-per-cent support, up from 23 per cent a month earlier, and was projected to win 17 seats. The NDP was set to expand to five and the Liberals, currently the official opposition, were projected to retain just four seats. …

Conservative MPs from Alberta are under orders to stay neutral in the race, but some acknowledge there’s a split among their caucus, voters and donors. It was Ms. Smith – not then-premier Ed Stelmach – who was photographed with Mr. Harper at last summer’s Calgary Stampede, a meeting some federal Conservatives have pointed to as a signal. …

“You know what, I can only speak for my own perspective. I’ve got board members that are Wildrose members and I’ve got board members that are Progressive Conservatives in Alberta. My focus is on representing Alberta in the federal government,” MP Brian Storseth said in a recent interview, after a PC cabinet minister told a meeting in Mr. Storseth’s riding that the federal government didn’t understand Alberta’s needs.

“I think that’s what we need to focus on … and honestly, I do think that’s the sense of Alberta [Conservative] caucus for the most part. I don’t think there are too many guys out there actively campaigning for one side or the other.”

Best guess? Stephen Harper, private citizen, would be a Wildrose member. But Prime Minister Stephen Harper knows darn well not to get involved.

This is like the Ontario PCs in the 1990s looking at the federal scene — some were PCs, some were Reform/Alliance supporters, but all were determined not to bring that fight to the provincial stage.

How not to deal with Prime Minister Harper

This:

OTTAWA — Canada could face an Arab Spring-style “uprising” if Prime Minister Stephen Harper doesn’t give a clear indication in his meeting with aboriginal leaders here Tuesday that he’s prepared to take their concerns seriously, a B.C. native leader warned Monday.

“We must do better. The honour of the Crown and the very integrity of Canada as a nation is at stake,” said Stewart Phillip, grand chief of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs, in a news release issued by the Assembly of First Nations’ B.C. wing.

“Otherwise, an aboriginal uprising is inevitable.”

The PM’s response was utterly predictable, to those of us who study him.

Well, actually:

Harper told chiefs that they should consider contacting their MPs and that he can’t just focus on Aboriginal issues because he has to run the country, according to three chiefs who were present at the meeting.

His comments left chiefs concerned the prime minister was not taking their issues seriously. …

When Harper announced the event in December, he said he hoped it would be “historic.”

The Prime Minister’s Office agreed to a meeting with limited number of delegates from each region. The parties met in a boardroom in the Langevin building, across from Parliament Hill, which houses Harper’s main office. The meeting ran from about 4 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. local time. …

Now, chiefs will wait to hear what the prime minister says in his speech Tuesday and what gets accomplished during sessions with cabinet ministers to gauge what to do next. They’ll either continue negotiating or take their issues to the streets.

“After all of that takes place, there is going to be reflection from the delegates,” said Phillip. “There is an incredibly high level of frustration and anger and resentment that has been expressed by our elders, our traditional leaders, grand chiefs, and chiefs.”

Yeah, I think that was rather dismissive even by Harper’s Toronto WASP standards. Bit of a burn.

Well, we’ll see — aboriginal issues are very important, and, self-aggrandizing chiefs notwithstanding, deserving of a good amount of federal government attention.

Newt by nine in Florida

Whoa.

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).

Florida allows early voting, and Romney leads among those voters by 11 points. Gingrich leads by 12 among those who have not yet voted. Fourteen percent (14%) have already cast their vote.

One-in-three (32%) say they still could change their minds before they vote in the January 31 primary. Another nine percent (9%) have no initial preference yet. Fifty-nine percent (59%) are already certain of their vote, including 73% of Romney supporters and 62% of Gingrich voters.

This Florida survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) have a favorable opinion of Romney, while 69% say the same of Gingrich. Sixty-four percent (64%) give Santorum positive reviews, but only 33% have a favorable opinion of Paul. In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Paul did better among non-Republicans than Republicans. In the Florida primary, only registered Republicans are allowed to participate.

Well, Romney still has higher favourables. But wow, things shifted quickly…

About Newt’s win…

… I get why they voted that way, I really do.

But I just have this to say:

I don’t want to hear family values moralizing out of South Carolinians again. EVER. You’ve taken that card out of your deck and burned it.

Capiche?

Musical Interlude: South Carolinian primary day

Here’s what I see for today:

Specifically:

There is freedom within, there is freedom without
Try to catch the deluge in a paper cup
There’s a battle ahead, many battles are lost
But you’ll never see the end of the road
While you’re traveling with me

Hey now, hey now, don’t dream it’s over
Hey now, hey now, when the world comes in
They come, they come to build a wall between us
We know they won’t win

Because Gingrich is going to win tonight, and the race isn’t over.

I’ll believe it when I see it in a writ period

Hudak springs ahead again:

The Progressive Conservatives have regained the public-opinion poll lead that they squandered to the governing Liberals last fall, according to a new Forum Research survey.

In the first major poll since the Oct. 6 election, the Conservatives, led by Tim Hudak, have moved ahead of Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals.

The Tories, who held a 15-point lead last summer, are at 41 per cent to the Liberals’ 33 per cent. The New Democrats, led by Andrea Horwath, are third with 20 per cent and Mike Schreiner’s Greens are at 4 per cent.

But in terms of approval rating, Horwath leads with 40 per cent, McGuinty is at 33 per cent, and Hudak trails with 26 per cent.

Forum’s interactive voice-response telephone poll of 1,041 people, conducted on Wednesday, is considered accurate to within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

I do think the electorate is in a more conservative mood.

But there’s a hint of the federal Liberals to the Ontario PCs — right down to the factionalism and back-biting.

So we’ll see.

OUCH!

Chantal Hébert, in a column on Quebec political leadership:

Between 1968 and 2004, Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, Jean Chrétien and, to a lesser degree, Paul Martin successively towered over their parties and the Canadian national scene.

Comparison isn’t kind.

***

On another note, in the same column Hébert makes an interesting observation:

There are also cracks in the federalist wall. They may be de facto federalist allies in the larger scheme of things but the relationship between Premier Charest and Prime Minister Stephen Harper can only be described as strikingly adversarial.

With so many conflicting forces at play, it would be foolhardy to predict who will be left standing once the dust settles in Quebec.

But a multiplication of factions vying for every possible parcel of electoral real estate suggests that it might be hard for any party to earn a majority in the Quebec election.

There is a strong possibility that — for the first time ever — Canada’s two largest provinces could soon simultaneously be run by minority governments. That could make for challenging times on the federal-provincial scene.

All this while a strong, stable, national majority government rules in Ottawa?

Fun times.

On dual nationality

Interestingly, both the Post and the Star are on the same page here.

I disagree. Specifically, I disagree with Coyne’s question here.

Well, I should say I disagree somewhat. I do think that dual citizenship can be a problem. It’s a problem on the level of politicians with large investments in firms they have a role regulating.

So my view is this: dual citizenship is fine if you’re a member of the opposition, a government backbencher, or a junior minister. But if you hold what the Russian call a power ministry — Finances, Foreign Affairs, or Defence — or the prime minister’s chair, or the governor general’s house, well, you should ideally renounce the other nationality before you swear the oath of office, or, in delicate circumstances (Dec. 2008, if a change in government had occurred), as soon as possible thereafter.

No, I don’t think Dion or Mulcair have secret plans to sell us out to the French, nor do we think that Diane Ablonczy has a sinister plan to make us Star-Spangled Canadians. And I think it’s not necessary to force Leaders of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to forswear their patrimonies. But those few top jobs — GG, PM, power ministries — those ought to divest themselves of conflicts either before taking office or as soon as is possible thereafter.

There it is, that’s nice and easy. This dual citizen can live with that as a convention.